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One of my issues is I have no idea what causes a spike or a plateau in subscriptions. Without having more data points and KPIs to inform me, it's difficult for me to tweak what I'm actually doing. What is the use of projecting forward if my conversion optimization is suboptimal and I don't actually know what I'm doing wrong? I need features in the platform that give me the appropriate feedback. Otherwise I might fail out of sheer ignorance and a lack of data.

That's not to say that CLV isn't fascinating or that various characteristics of this are not truly useful. I'm just very puzzled by the volatility of growth, making me assume these are not factors in my control.

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Thanks for the comment, Michael! A few points here that resonate with me.

We (Substack) need to get better at informing writers/publications about what's going well for them, what they could do to improve, and how they're growing. It's a tough problem, but we think about it a lot, and hopefully we can get better at providing guidance on how to grow over time.

For the Croissant, the CLV posts are likely more immediately actionable for businesses with a repeatable growth engine. I'm mostly writing to myself ten years ago when I just got to Hulu and was clueless about measuring growth & acting on it.

My concern is that the CLV posts are overkill or distracting for folks just getting going. But I've also heard from folks in this position that the CLV-style posts are interesting, and helps them think longer-term and imagine what's possible. I think these posts can also help earlier-stage businesses (i.e., writers/publications) build a strong intuition early on, helping them better navigate growth as they progress. But I certainly wrestle with it when choosing what to write about and who to write toward with the Croissant.

For any writer, publication, or business getting going, nothing is more important than consistency. Most people trying to build a business online don't make it because they don't keep up the habit of publishing. Of course, the tricky bit is consistency alone doesn't guarantee success. But very hard to build a business without consistency.

Thanks again! 🙏

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I think you might be right in that. I believe the compounding impact of newsletter growth might be felt after 24 months of being consistent. Now I'm sure you've seen a lot more baseline data, but projecting customer lifetime value might be more impactful given a solid history of data and growth.

I would be curious how many newsletter creators a) actually make it to 24 months and b) find and arrive at a stage of product market fit growth.

My hunch is if substack could grow that percentage, you yourself as a company or a startup would find product market fit of another level.

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Helpful as always! I'm learning a lot and it's making the psychological reality of becoming an independent business person easier for me!

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