How to build a reliable forecast model for your subscription business.
If some forecasting was built into the dashboard, I think you'd see lower churn of newsletter creators in the first and second year. They need to be able to visualize what their creativity could become. I may be wrong but my impression is there is a blind spot.
The majority of newsletter writers don't seem to take a long-term view of what paid subscriptions. Plus sponsored ads with flat fees can become in terms of a side gig.
If Substack did what Paved does, and took 15% instead of 30%. What a different business model this would all be for you and us.
Great concept and model, Reid. I’d love to take a look at the actual file if you wouldn’t mind sharing a copy. Also, curious why you assumed in the “% of subs remaining after“ chart that 100% of annual subscribers would be retained after year 1. Why wouldn’t some churn after year 1?
Great article Reid...I'm largely just here to ogle that eye chart...what a beaut! And thanks Tony for giving such an intimate peek into your business...
...curious if you have any thoughts on how to model the growth opportunities for the business expansion components (hiring a growth lead vs. starting a pod vs. buying some programatic ads, etc.)?
I wish these were somehow part of what we share with / show writers; these are all so good and seem really useful and you could see versions of them as being “official Substack documentation” or whatever!
Another stellar analysis. Very helpful and keeps me thinking about ways to stay ahead of "both" curves...