A look at three key trends shaping the future of media, including a shift from large media companies to niche companies led by individuals and small teams; renting to owning your audience on big tech platforms; and advertising-centric platforms to subscription-centric ecosystems.
Reid, do you foresee some sort of bundling strategy within Patreon/Substack having to evolve? When a customer gets a sttreaming service they get a lot of content for $10-20 a month, meanwhile most patreon/substacks at that price point limit you to one creator. It would be the equivalent of paying $10 a month for a Simpsons patreon, etc. What would be the fair market value for unlimited premium on either service? would that ever even be tenable? From a creator side I know the answer (imo hell to the no)...but on the customer and service side I imagine the thoughts at least have to be percolating around a tiered access payment system at some point...
Hello amigo, thanks for dropping by with the comment! :)
Yes, I think something like bundling could work and maybe ties into the product experience getting better. For Patreon, Substack, and the like, I don't think it can be exactly like Netflix's all-you-can-eat model for one price. That kind of pushes the supply side (the creative talent & their output) toward being commoditized, even if it's a killer "deal" for some consumers. The other thing that's kind of interesting is that a lot of consumers would rather pay someone who's art they love directly, not as part of a bundle.
I think there's probably some type of bundle-ish product that honors the direct relationship between the creative talent and the audience, but also creates some solid consumer surplus and encourages a broader group of people to enter these new subscription-centric ecosystems.
Jun 24, 2023·edited Jun 24, 2023Liked by Reid DeRamus
The all-you-can-eat model for writing already exists; that's what Medium is, and it creates all kinds of downward pressure on the creator side. It also tilts the scale more toward social media and a less direct relationship with one's audience. From where I sit, that seems counter to Substack's value proposition.
That said, I do think we'll see the sort of bundling the 3 of you have mentioned. To work, I think it has to be writer driven (like Recommendations are), rather than by algorithm. For example, right now there are a group of writers from Iowa that have formed a collective. That's obviously a very specific niche (they're all fantastic, btw), but it'd be easy to see them offering something for $XXX/mo. and having access to all member writer's newsletters. A few of us in the music space are trying to emulate them as well.
As for splitting revenue, there are some sticking points but I think those can be easily worked out. You'd also need guardrails in place in case someone stopped writing (or had to be asked to leave the collective), but again, I think those are things that can be fairly straightforward.
Maybe it's just me, but I would prefer this over people constantly asking for Substack to let them offer $1-2/mo. subscriptions.
From the supply side, I struggle to see how this would work for the exact same reason you outlined. The only way I could see this bundling work would be if creators initiated a combo subscription with another creator or two. For example...get How They Grow, Growth Croissant, and Digital Native together for $x. With the thesis that maybe non-subscribers would convert given wider variety. Less per creator revenue, but at least monetizing otherwise free readers.
But of course, lots of tricky cases that make that hard. Like, what if one stops writing. How do you deal with that?
Fun thought experiment, but seemingly too confusing.
No matter how you cut it, there will be more complexity than now, and it would be a hard thing to build. But if you could create enough extra value for all parties, I think it’s possible to work through the complexities.
I'm hoping bundling is slow to develop. I'm curious to see how the writer/audience relationships grow, given that more and more folks may migrate away from the mass media craziness, where there's so much needless information -- to less distraction, more focused "favorite writers."
Regardless of pacing, I think any bundling initiatives, products, or features will be much more up to writers or other creative talent than business people or tech platforms. Since anyone can pick up their phone and start their own media company, it’s not absolutely necessary to join any bundled product, especially for those that find success and reach the ultimate freedom of doing what they love to do & being paid directly by people that value their work.
Thanks for dropping by with a comment, much appreciated! 🙏
...yeah what i am picturing is probably something like a discounted method to access XX numbers of creators...the upsell is I am about to sign up for one creator at $5-10 but if I want I can get them +4 more creators for $15-25 a month...not sure what level of engagement or revenue increase this would provoke but I do think that as the creator econ grows so too will the fatigue of having too many single subs...the other interesting side to this is how currently tilted the creator economy can be towards the top 1% of creators (see twitch, etc. for where the money truly grows)...adopting a bundled model could increase the amount of the creator middle class able to monetize...also Jaryd so good to see you here bud!
Jun 23, 2023·edited Jun 23, 2023Liked by Reid DeRamus
I operated a BBS in 1990 on fido.net. People would subscribe to them (no one paid, back then, well we paid for the telephone bills...) but the Substack model I feel is similar in terms of audience and community, close-knit, focus-driven unhampered by relay nodes and dependency of an individual. Sometimes messages could take a day or two to arrive back then. Today it is instant, of course. What does the future hold? For Substack, for media? Defragmentation. There are many (streaming) platforms and users/audiences are fragmented all across them. I am not saying there will be one streaming service, one platform to rule them all, there will be less. The ones that survive will be the ones that have enough gravitational pull to defragment, to consolidate. It's already happening.
If there's any constant in media, it's the cycles of unbundling & bundling.
When there were only a handful of film studios, or a few broadcast tv channels, everything was mass media. Netflix, Disney, Spotify, and the like can still serve as the backbone of mass media (again, bigger reach than even the early film studios & broadcast channels could have imagined). But I hope that as we move forward, we keep some of the magic that's emerged from unbundling into niche communities — groups of people who nerd out over something they're passionate about.
"keep some of the magic that's emerged from unbundling into communities (niche or not ;)" Yes, must keep that magic. I started here 3 months ago and at first thought: yet another one of "those" but far from it! I have since collaborated with two composers, had a guest post on another writer's Substack and made meaningful connections with writers and readers, every step of the way. Magical. 👌
“I hope we see a similar cycle repeat for these new subscription-centric ecosystems so that buying a subscription on Substack, Patreon, or similar platforms feels as normal (and more emotionally satisfying) as buying a subscription to Netflix or Spotify.”
Substack is more emotionally satisfying on my end as a creator as well. I love how I can give my paid content to people who aren’t able to pay for it. It’s wonderful!
A million percent. There’s nothing quite like being supported directly by people that value what you do. That deep connection definitely goes both ways.
I worked at the Guardian for a few years and witnessed first-hand how content creators wanted to get more direct access to an audience + ‘own’ the audience - hence many jumped ship to go it alone or to more niche media brands which had more of a direct dialogue with their audience.
I do think there’s something useful about experiencing a large media org (I’m totally biased 😅) where you have to think about content creation at scale, how to cater for that audience, build trust etc.
But totally agree, no longer a must, which is awesome!
Totally agree re: experiencing a large media org — it seems like a fairly symbiotic relationship. For folks just getting started, they benefit from the structure, momentum, and mentorship of large media orgs. And of course, for more established writers & journalists, they can still take advantage of the stability, support, and the other benefits of being in a bigger media org.
This is kind of different, but I often think about how Saturday Night Live launched the careers of several comedic actors. SNL wouldn't have been as successful without the cycle of young talent coming & going, and it would have been much more difficult for comedic actors to become mega stars without SNL.
Thanks again for dropping by & leaving a comment. :)
Reid, do you foresee some sort of bundling strategy within Patreon/Substack having to evolve? When a customer gets a sttreaming service they get a lot of content for $10-20 a month, meanwhile most patreon/substacks at that price point limit you to one creator. It would be the equivalent of paying $10 a month for a Simpsons patreon, etc. What would be the fair market value for unlimited premium on either service? would that ever even be tenable? From a creator side I know the answer (imo hell to the no)...but on the customer and service side I imagine the thoughts at least have to be percolating around a tiered access payment system at some point...
Hello amigo, thanks for dropping by with the comment! :)
Yes, I think something like bundling could work and maybe ties into the product experience getting better. For Patreon, Substack, and the like, I don't think it can be exactly like Netflix's all-you-can-eat model for one price. That kind of pushes the supply side (the creative talent & their output) toward being commoditized, even if it's a killer "deal" for some consumers. The other thing that's kind of interesting is that a lot of consumers would rather pay someone who's art they love directly, not as part of a bundle.
I think there's probably some type of bundle-ish product that honors the direct relationship between the creative talent and the audience, but also creates some solid consumer surplus and encourages a broader group of people to enter these new subscription-centric ecosystems.
The all-you-can-eat model for writing already exists; that's what Medium is, and it creates all kinds of downward pressure on the creator side. It also tilts the scale more toward social media and a less direct relationship with one's audience. From where I sit, that seems counter to Substack's value proposition.
That said, I do think we'll see the sort of bundling the 3 of you have mentioned. To work, I think it has to be writer driven (like Recommendations are), rather than by algorithm. For example, right now there are a group of writers from Iowa that have formed a collective. That's obviously a very specific niche (they're all fantastic, btw), but it'd be easy to see them offering something for $XXX/mo. and having access to all member writer's newsletters. A few of us in the music space are trying to emulate them as well.
As for splitting revenue, there are some sticking points but I think those can be easily worked out. You'd also need guardrails in place in case someone stopped writing (or had to be asked to leave the collective), but again, I think those are things that can be fairly straightforward.
Maybe it's just me, but I would prefer this over people constantly asking for Substack to let them offer $1-2/mo. subscriptions.
Exactly right re: Medium. There’s some evidence that it’s hard to make that model work over time for all parties involved.
Kevin, your idea for a bundle is music to my ears!
From the supply side, I struggle to see how this would work for the exact same reason you outlined. The only way I could see this bundling work would be if creators initiated a combo subscription with another creator or two. For example...get How They Grow, Growth Croissant, and Digital Native together for $x. With the thesis that maybe non-subscribers would convert given wider variety. Less per creator revenue, but at least monetizing otherwise free readers.
But of course, lots of tricky cases that make that hard. Like, what if one stops writing. How do you deal with that?
Fun thought experiment, but seemingly too confusing.
No matter how you cut it, there will be more complexity than now, and it would be a hard thing to build. But if you could create enough extra value for all parties, I think it’s possible to work through the complexities.
I'm hoping bundling is slow to develop. I'm curious to see how the writer/audience relationships grow, given that more and more folks may migrate away from the mass media craziness, where there's so much needless information -- to less distraction, more focused "favorite writers."
Regardless of pacing, I think any bundling initiatives, products, or features will be much more up to writers or other creative talent than business people or tech platforms. Since anyone can pick up their phone and start their own media company, it’s not absolutely necessary to join any bundled product, especially for those that find success and reach the ultimate freedom of doing what they love to do & being paid directly by people that value their work.
Thanks for dropping by with a comment, much appreciated! 🙏
...yeah what i am picturing is probably something like a discounted method to access XX numbers of creators...the upsell is I am about to sign up for one creator at $5-10 but if I want I can get them +4 more creators for $15-25 a month...not sure what level of engagement or revenue increase this would provoke but I do think that as the creator econ grows so too will the fatigue of having too many single subs...the other interesting side to this is how currently tilted the creator economy can be towards the top 1% of creators (see twitch, etc. for where the money truly grows)...adopting a bundled model could increase the amount of the creator middle class able to monetize...also Jaryd so good to see you here bud!
Yes, exactly, something along those lines.
And wait, you and Jaryd know each other?!?
...just from reading his radical substack...
I operated a BBS in 1990 on fido.net. People would subscribe to them (no one paid, back then, well we paid for the telephone bills...) but the Substack model I feel is similar in terms of audience and community, close-knit, focus-driven unhampered by relay nodes and dependency of an individual. Sometimes messages could take a day or two to arrive back then. Today it is instant, of course. What does the future hold? For Substack, for media? Defragmentation. There are many (streaming) platforms and users/audiences are fragmented all across them. I am not saying there will be one streaming service, one platform to rule them all, there will be less. The ones that survive will be the ones that have enough gravitational pull to defragment, to consolidate. It's already happening.
If there's any constant in media, it's the cycles of unbundling & bundling.
When there were only a handful of film studios, or a few broadcast tv channels, everything was mass media. Netflix, Disney, Spotify, and the like can still serve as the backbone of mass media (again, bigger reach than even the early film studios & broadcast channels could have imagined). But I hope that as we move forward, we keep some of the magic that's emerged from unbundling into niche communities — groups of people who nerd out over something they're passionate about.
Thanks for dropping by with a comment! :)
"keep some of the magic that's emerged from unbundling into communities (niche or not ;)" Yes, must keep that magic. I started here 3 months ago and at first thought: yet another one of "those" but far from it! I have since collaborated with two composers, had a guest post on another writer's Substack and made meaningful connections with writers and readers, every step of the way. Magical. 👌
Love to hear it! ❤️
“I hope we see a similar cycle repeat for these new subscription-centric ecosystems so that buying a subscription on Substack, Patreon, or similar platforms feels as normal (and more emotionally satisfying) as buying a subscription to Netflix or Spotify.”
YES!!!!
Substack is more emotionally satisfying on my end as a creator as well. I love how I can give my paid content to people who aren’t able to pay for it. It’s wonderful!
A million percent. There’s nothing quite like being supported directly by people that value what you do. That deep connection definitely goes both ways.
This was no "ramble!" Thank you! Your optimism is contagious, but without an explanation, how could we really invest in it? :)
Lol! Thank you, Mike! 🙏
Excellent. I’m excited to be part of the platform sitting right at the intersection of all of it. 🥐
🙌🔥🚀
thanks Reid 🙏🏼
i appreciate (as always) your expertise... and your humility.
You're the best - thank you, Darren! 🙏
you're quite welcome, Reid 🙏🏼
thanks for sharing your knowledge with writers... trying to grow 🚀
Yes. And yeah, great reflection point on SNL - both needed each other.
Great insight, thanks!
I worked at the Guardian for a few years and witnessed first-hand how content creators wanted to get more direct access to an audience + ‘own’ the audience - hence many jumped ship to go it alone or to more niche media brands which had more of a direct dialogue with their audience.
I do think there’s something useful about experiencing a large media org (I’m totally biased 😅) where you have to think about content creation at scale, how to cater for that audience, build trust etc.
But totally agree, no longer a must, which is awesome!
Thanks Jason!
Totally agree re: experiencing a large media org — it seems like a fairly symbiotic relationship. For folks just getting started, they benefit from the structure, momentum, and mentorship of large media orgs. And of course, for more established writers & journalists, they can still take advantage of the stability, support, and the other benefits of being in a bigger media org.
This is kind of different, but I often think about how Saturday Night Live launched the careers of several comedic actors. SNL wouldn't have been as successful without the cycle of young talent coming & going, and it would have been much more difficult for comedic actors to become mega stars without SNL.
Thanks again for dropping by & leaving a comment. :)